Opinion Pieces

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority's (KMSA) latest seasonal forecast offers cautious optimism for Kenya's agricultural sector. Despite projections of near-average to below-average rainfall in several regions between July and September, agricultural production is expected to remain stable following favourable rainfall received during the March–May season.

Drought in northern Kenya has become an intensifying and recurring climate shock, and its footprint is expanding. Recent figures paint a harsh reality. Towards the end of 2025, the critical October-December short rains fell between 30 % - 60 % of the normal, marking one of the driest seasons since 1980s. This failure follows back-to-back poor rainy seasons, leaving the region without the basic moisture needed to sustain water sources, crops, or pasture. 

Every year, the International Day of Care and Support reminds us of an often-overlooked truth, that care work is the invisible backbone of our societies and economies. From nurturing children and supporting the elderly to caring for persons with disabilities and maintaining household wellbeing, care work sustains life and fuels productivity. Yet, much of this work remains undervalued, underpaid, or entirely unpaid, disproportionately borne by women and girls across the world.

This blog presents an integrated analysis of the structural linkages between food security and macroeconomic vulnerabilities in Kenya. Using data from the Economic Survey 2025 Food Balance Sheet (FBS) and the 2025/26 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) published in the Budget Policy Statement (2026), it highlights how Kenya’s food availability, nutritional adequacy, and import reliance intersect with sovereign debt dynamics and external sector constraints.